mortgage question: what would you do?

Looking for another opinion here.

I'm planning on selling and then buying a new house. Currently have 20 months left on mortgage term. I've been to the bank (CIBC) and they are okay adding to the mortgage blending the rate and increasing the amortization but not changing the term of 20 months I have left. The blended rate for about how much I want is going to be 3.6 % on about 250,000. The payout fee to walk away from them is 6000.

I've done the numbers a bunch of different ways. If I pay out the 6000 and go variable (prime -.4 = 2.6% right now) so long as rates don't go through the roof I win. If I go fixed term I lose. Not a ton but at least I'm locked in for 5 years or so at a decent rate. I've been happy with CIBC so I'm not chomping at the bit to leave them but if it saves me a bunch of money I would no problem.

I think the general consensus right now is that rates are headed back up but by how much. I believe they can only go so far before they cause a major slowdown in housing and related activity which will impact the economy to the point that prime will come back down/stabilize again. Question is how high will that be and will I be stuck renewing then......


Thoughts?